2001 election - labour's second landslide
Labour won a fully expected second landslide on Thursday 7 June 2001. The winning majority of 167 seats was just four seats light of the first landslide win in May 1997. Indeed the final outcome of the election was overwhelmingly similar to the outcome four years earlier - with one glaring exception - the abysmal level of voter turnout which reached a low of 59.3% compared with 71% in 1997.
One of the remarkable aspects of the result was the low scale of constituency churn - the number of seats that changes hands between parties at a general election. William Hague's Conservative party added one solitary seat to their meagre 1997 total. Labour maintained a huge Parliamentary dominance by winning 413 seats.
Lib Dem Breakthrough?
The Liberal Democrats made the biggest advances with six extra seats giving them a total of 52. Labour actually polled 2,778,000 votes fewer than they had in 1997 and their share of the national vote declined from 44% to 40.7%.
But the Conservatives made precious littlke headway and their total vote fell once again by 1,248,100. Their share of the vote edged a little higher to 31.7% - but well short of anything like the kind of swing needed to make serious inroads into Labour huge majority.
For years, third parties such as Liberals, the Social Democratic Party and (nowodays) the Liberal Democrats have failed to make headway under the First Past The Post electoral system. However 2001 will go down as a year when the Liberal Democrats under Charles Kennedy gained the sort of foothold in the House of Commons that offers the prospect of them becoming a serious opposition force in the new Parliament.
Despite seeing their total vote drop by nearly 430,000 (the result of the collapse in voter turnout) they gained six new seats to take their Commons representation to 52 on a 18.3% share of the vote. Nationally there was a 1.5% swing to the Liberal Democrats - they made ground across the country - but particularly in the South West and North West. There were some stunning victories - not least in Richmond, Kingston Upon Thames and also in Winchester - a seat they had won by the slender margin of two votes in May 1997 but won again in a by-election shortly afterwards
Landslide Country?
Prior to 1997, on the two occasions when Labour had won decisive victories in a British General Election, they polled 48% of the popular vote in 1945 and 1966. Labour managed to secure a majority in excess of 170 with just 43.2% of the vote in 1997 - but in 2001, its vote dipped to 40.7%, yet the majority was barely dented - falling to 167.
It is worth noting that Labour lost an election in 1955 with 46.4% of the vote and again in 1970 with 43%. Clearly the current First Past The Post electoral system now works firmly in Labour's favour. The Conservatives need to have quite a lead over Labour in terms of votes simply to deprive Labour of a Commons majority.
The chart above shows the percentage swing needed by the Conservatives to achieve a rising number of parliamentary seats. At the next election (expected in 2005 or 2006), the Tories require a swing of perhaps 12% to reclaim a Commons majority.
A Mountain to Climb for the Conservatives
June 2001 marked a second electoral catastrophe for the Conservatives. The small rise in its share of the nationa vote (31.7%) was the second lowest figure since 1832. Wales remains a Tory free zone and the Conservatives ended up in fourth place in Scotland despite reclaiming one seat. It can claim virtually no Parliamentary seats in Urban areas.
Since 1992, millions of voters have deserted the Conservative Party. What can they do to win them back? William Hague's position became untenable after having led the party to one of their worst election defeats. On the morning of the 8th of June, Hague resigned as Leader - leading to the start of a new leadership contest, just four years on from 1997.
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